Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
