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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still